Chinese New Year Cabinet Shake-Up?

The rumoured Cabinet reshuffle may materialize earlier than expected. Matichon Daily this morning even suggested that the changes will take place on Jan 23 -- just in time to celebrate the Chinese New Year.

The first reshuffle of the Yingluck Cabinet may be on a small scale, however. It may involve the replacement of the agriculture minister, Theera Wongsamut, under the quota of coalition partner, Chat Thai Pattana of Banharn Silpar-archa. The ruling Pheu Thai Party will argue that the change is necessary to improve the efficiency of water management in the new year after the recent devastating flood.

But it is also known that Banharn has negotiated for a delay in the change until later when a larger-scale reshuffle could be effected all at once.

Another possible change is the industry portfolio. Chat Pattana Party has let it be known that Minister Wannarat Channukul has been taken ill and doctors have proposed that he take a rest. It's not clear whether this party, under the control of Suwat Lippatapanlop, will name another candidate for the post.

It's not clear whether the rumoured shakeup next week will include the replacement of the finance minister as had been speculated in the past week. It could turn out to be a mini-reshuffle to let Pheu Thai reclaim the agriculture post to consolidate its control over flood management activities. Pheu Thai is said to have offered Banharn one of the three portfolios in exchange for the agriculture post: education, public health or social development.

It's going to be a very exciting Chinese New Year this year, politically anyway.

Abhisit: Let's make it two, not one, for each province

Opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva says each province should have two, instead of one, representative to join the new constitutional amendment assembly (CAD) so that no political parties could influence the outcome of the process.

The ruling Phue Thai Party has proposed a 77-member CAD, with each province electing one representative to the panel. The Democrat leader said today that despite the suggestion that "independent" candidates would produce representatives who aren't attached to political parties, it must be admitted that in reality candidates with political affiliation would stand a better chance than others to win the election in this case.

Abhisit therefore proposed that two representatives be elected from each province so that the influence of political parties could strike a proper balance.

"For example, if a certain party has 60% of the influence in a certain area, it's not going to be easy for it to get two representatives.The other party with a 30% popularity would get the second seat. Or if two major parties share a 30:30 influence in a constitutency, the one with 40% will get the seat instead," he said.

Observers see Abhisit's proposal as a strategy to ensure his Democrat Party stands a good chance to win the majority in the elections of representatives to rewrite the charter. In the North and Northeast, judging from the last elections, Democrat candidates came second in many constituencies. In the South, the Democrats believe they could sweep the first and second seats rather than ceding the ceding the second best to Pheu Thai.

Of course, Pheu Thai isn't naive. They could easily see through the Democrats' game plan. The name of the game is "democracy," of course -- but when it boils down to the bottom line, the real battle is all about how do you define "democracy" in suc a way that you will win the next elections.

If the PM had to make a choice between these 2 ministers....

It's still a rumour, of course. But this morning's front-page report in Matichon Daily sounded a bit closer to some real decision by Premier Yingluck Shinawatra to effect a Cabinet reshuffle -- and it's going to be sooner than you thought. The next two to three weeks?

Finance Minister Theerachai Puvanartnaranubarn appears to be the main victim and the winner is none other than Deputy Premier Kittirat na Ranong, a close friend of the premier even before she became prime minister. If Matichon is right, Kittirat will take over the finance portfolio. His commerce post will be up by Yanyong Puangraj, currently the ministry's permanent secretary.

The reason cited by the report for the reshuffle is the conflict between Kittirat and Theerachai over the proposed emergency bills to transfer FIDF's debts to the central bank -- a move which has raised a huge controversy with the finance minister opposing the move while Kittirat insists on making the change.

Theerachai was conspicuously absent from the television programme on Saturday when Kittirat appeared with Dr Virabongsa Ramangkura, chairman of the committee charged with post-flood rehabilitation, explained the necessity of restructuring the debt burden in order that the government could make new borrowings to finance the large-scale reconstruction.

Virabongsa hit out at the central bank for behaving like an "autonomous state within a state." Kittirat was more diplomatic. It was rumoured that Theerachai, who had been invited to join the panel, made himself unavailable at the last minute.

If the Cabinet reshuffle does take place, according to Matichon, two deputy communications ministers -- Kittisak Hattasongkroh and Police Lt Gen Chaj Kuldilok -- may also be ousted. They have been at odds with their boss, Communications Minister Air Chief Marshal Sukampol Suwannathat.

Also, a close aide to the premier, Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisal, may be made minister attached to the PM's Office to be in charge of media and communications, according to the report.

The line between Bangkok and Dubai must be very very busy indeed these days. Thaksin Shinawatra, in his recent phone-in to Pheu Thai MPs, said if he hadn't picked up the phone from some of them, it was because of the rumours about the reshuffle.

So, perhaps, things are really shaping up for some changes in the Cabinet line-up. The merry-go-round has started to spin now.

Too close for comfort?

He isn't prime minister anymore. But wherever Abhisit Vejjajiva, the opposition leader, goes, he is still greeted by some of his fans. This picture shows how intimate some young girls want to get to him. No security personnel around him? Apparently not.

Jatuporn meets Suriyasai: Soft sparring

I just watched "Woody" getting Jatuporn Prompan (red-shirt leader) and Suriyasai Takasila (yellow-shirt core leader as well as green movement chief) on Channel 9. And it was refreshingly frank for both to shake hands to agree to disagree.

Could this be the first step (one of many, many) towards some genuine reconciliation on a bigger scale?

Jatuporn and Suriyasai were in fact working together when they were student activists. Jatuporn was at Ramkhamhaeng and Suriyasai was attached to Kasetsart. They were both campaigning against military dictatorship and were in fact members of the student movement that was instrumental in calling for elections.

But they split after Thaksin Shinawatra took power. The rest, as they say, is history.

While they were smiling and expressing nice, warm words for each other in the programme, moderated by Woody, the two did confirm their political positions that are still poles apart. Yes, it still centres on the man called Thaksin.

Suriyasai said if the Yingluck government continues to make Thaksin the core issue, it probably won't last long. It should in fact be pursuing the issues that had been highlighted during the Pheu Thai's election campaign.

Jatuporn insisted that the red shirts would continue to push for the fulfillment of the promises of fighting for democracy and equality. "Thaksin will get what the rest of the 64 million Thais get," he said.

Woody, who described the meeting as a "soft sparring," got the two to shake hands. And, as it appeared on television anyway, a good time was had by all.

When Asean secretary general tweets on flash-floods hitting his hometown

Surin Pitsuwan, the native son of the southern province of Nakhon Si Thammarat, and currently Asean Secretary General, has been tweeting from early morning from his hometown which is being wrecked by fast-rising flashfloods.

His tweets tell the story.

He asked: "What have we done to deserve the wrath of Nature?"

Another tweet: "OMG! It's coming very fast from all directions."

With another picture, Surin tweeted: "Young students are preparing for the worst."

Yet another picture taken by "Citizen Reporter" Surin carried this caption: "This 'was' our school compound until now. It's a lake!"

Another tweet from the Asean secretary general: "Water, water, water!"

New Year starts with specter of flood from Bangkok to South

Picture taken by @mahan_mcot posted on Twitter this morning of at the Sugei Padi Market in Narathiwat...

2012 starts with natural disaster hitting the South. Heavy downpours on New Year's Eve hit southern provinces of Songkhla, Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat, submerging many areas in those provinces this morning.

At 10.00 this morning, authorities at the southern commercial centre of Hat Yai Municipality raised the yellow flag as a warning for local residents to start preparations for moving things higher and possible evacuation if things get worse.

The specter of last year's severe flooding in the south has surfaced yet again, only a few days after Bangkok was declared "officially dry" by Bangkok Governor M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra.

It's an ominous beginning for the Year of the Big Snake.