PM, Army Chief: Who's scaring whom?

A strange memo has just gone out from the defence minister's secretariat to all military units concerned to deny that a committee has been set up to investigate the army chief for having gone on television to "discredit" and "smear" the prime minister.

It wasn't that long ago that the army chief together with the supreme commander and heads of the navy, air force and police went on Channel 3 to talk politics. The famous quote from the army chief was: "If I were the prime minister, I would have quit (to take responsibility over the Oct 7 incident)."

The immediate reaction from most analysts:Premier Somchai Wongsawat, who is also defence minister, is afraid that such a rumour could anger Army Commander-in-Chief, Gen Anupong Paochinda,to the point that a new confrontation between the premier and the armed forces could explode into a new crisis.

Was it just a rumour? Well, it was almost a "credible rumour" when even the name of the head of the probe team was mentioned: Air Chief Marshal Kampol Suwannathat, the defence ministry's general officer, who promptly shot down the story, saying there was no basis to the speculation at all.

The rather odd memo of denial said it was the army chief's personal right to express his political opinion.

Even more interesting was the statement in the memo stating: "The prime minister is not angry with the army chief. They continue to work together harmoniously."

Will that put an end to the rumour or will it re-ignite a new one?

Ailing Samak faces protest at Houston airport

Samak Sundaravej and his wife Khunying Surat flew into Houston, Texas, early this morning (Bangkok time), only to be greeted by a group of protestors who held up posters reading: "Houston PAD members (don't) welcome traitor..." and "Fate doesn't have to wait until next life..."

The protestors call themselves members of the People's Alliance for Democracy in Houston. Somehow, they found out the arrival time of the former prime minister who was accompanied by his wife on a United Airline flight that left Bangkok early yesterday.

Samak, after over a month of treatment for liver cancer at Bumrungrad Hospital, is reportedly getting further treatment at an unnamed American hospital.

It was not clear how Samak reacted to the protestors who were holding the posters right next to him at the airport lounge.

He has been convicted to two years in jail by the court for a libel against former Deputy Bangkok Governor Samart Rajpolasith. His lawyers say he has not filed an official appeal.

(Pictures from Manager Online)

Thaksin, Prem...No love lost between them

What's Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat up to when he said today that Gen Prem Tinsulanond, former premier and President of the Privy Council, "could play a role" in mediating an end to the ongoing conflict?

But nothing has happened since Somchai sought a meeting with Prem as soon as the former assumed office.

Now, every political pundit in town knows that Prem and former Premier Thaksin Shinnawatr, Somchai's brother in law, eye each other with deep suspicion, no matter what they say publicly about each other.

Now, a group of the ruling People's Power Party, is collecting signatures from MPs (they claim to have got 90 so far) so that they can appeal to Prem to take on the role of the "middle man" to get all parties concerned to come to the negotiation table.

That move, of course, has been seen as a cynical gesture from the government MPs who, without a doubt, realize that the relationship between Thaksin and Prem remain somewhat soured in the background. It's no secret, of course, that Thaksin has always harboured the suspicion that Prem ("someone with extra-constitutional power") has been behind the move to unseat him. Prem has kept quiet throughout and has never publicly responded to the accusation. Sources close to Prem say he remains suspicious of Thaksin's political ambition...and the danger of his "the-end-justifies-the-means" attitude.

Is the PPP's MPs' move to enlist Prem's help in resolving the national conflict in fact a trick to corner him. Is Thaksin behind this new plot to embarrass Prem?

Not a few political analysts will tell you the jury is still out.

Chamlong: We'll talk...but only on these conditions

On the surface, Maj Gen Chamlong Srimuang, a core leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy, seems to have taken a softer position. He has opposed any negotiations with the government all along. Today, he gave the first indication that PAD may be ready to sit down for the first round of serious negotiations.

But several conditions will have to be first met: First of all, PAD, he says, will only talk to the government and no third or fourth parties will be involved. Secondly, a "middle man" who can be trusted by both sides will have to moderate the talks. No time frame is given. No agenda is proposed.

But hold on, before you think Chamlong has really taken a sofer stand, listen to what he added on to his list of conditions for talks: Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat will have to quit as part of the deal.

That's a tough stand. But then, PAD has denounced Somchai as Thaksin's "true nominee" from Day One. So, that final but unnegotiable condition isn't anything new anyway.

Do I think the PAD-government talks will actually happen? Not for now, I am afraid. Both sides are going through the motions of wanting to appear flexible but deep down, neither is ready to step back from their current positions.

Split right down the middle

Thaksin Shinnawatr's "phone-in" show on Saturday didn't help bridge the widening gap between the red-yellow warring parties. On the contrary, things got worse because Thaksin was talking mostly about his personal problems, and not the nation's dangerous, deteriorating sense of national harmony.

A leading academic trying to propose a peaceful, third way out, had this to say to underline how hopeless the situation is when we talked over a cup of tea yesterday:

"I am afraid nobody is listening to anyone. The country is split right down the middle. No one knows what is right or wrong anymore. Right is wrong and wrong is right. If this goes on, I am afraid it will end up with people killing one another. Must there be more bloodshed before we can find a so-called neutral person to step in to end the confrontation? In fact, is there such a "neutral" person around?

I am desperately looking for that little ray of light at the end of this dark, dark tunnel.

Thaksin's thinly-veiled plan to seek amnesty

The Thaksin's "Phone-In Show" last night had one
obvious aim: to seek enough sympathy from the crowd
to ask for a public request for royal amnesty from
the two-year imprisonment term handed down last week
by the Supreme Court for Political Office Holders.

But is it legally permissible? Premier Somchai Wongsawat,
Thaksin's brother-in-law, said he won't be proposing
the amnesty for the ex-premier. "Besides, only the affected
person can submit such a request."

Government spokesman Nattawut Saikua said Thaksin won't
be seeking amnesty anyway.

National Insitute of Development Administration (NIDA)
Rector Sombat Thamrongthanyawong said a convict can only
seek a reduced jail term when he has started serving
the prison term, not before.

"Or else, pressure could be applied to the government to
initiate a bill to seek amnesty. But then, it's against
the constitution to take such action for any one person,"
he said.

Thaksin's revealing statement that sparked this line of
speculation was: "Only through royal kindness or people
power can I return to Thailand again."

To my mind, the more tell-tale statement was when Thaksin
kicked off his ten-minute phone-in (from Hong Kong) with
this seemingly innocent question to the estimated 50,000-strong
crowd:

"Do you miss me?"

Red rally, yellow rally

As I write this at around 8.00 pm, the "Red" rally at the Rajamangla Stadium (capacity 49,000 seats) is in full swing. The "Yellow" rally at Government House is also gathering momentum. Thaksin Shinnawatr, believed to have flown from London to Hong Kong yesterday, was supposed to make his "phone-in" at 8.00 pm. But the organizers just said that would be postponed until 10.30 pm.

No reason was given for the delay. Originally, Thaksin was to call in "live." But later reports suggested that he had decided to tape it in advance -- and it would be a 8-minute clip instead of the earlier scheduled 20-minute live talk.

The pro-government Red speakers (United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship or UDD)were apparently encouraged by the big turnout. They called for the ouster of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) from Government House and the shutdown of ASTV, which has served as PAD's mouthpiece.

The huge poster at the stadium declares: "We fight against coup..."

The anti-government Yellow movement leaders, boosted by a much bigger turnout than any other of the past 160 days of the occupation of Government House compound, declared repeatedly: "The Red gathering is not our competitor....they are just Thaksin's lackeys."

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat told reporters this morning that he was "concerned" about the rising tension the new confrontation could bring about.

Military leaders say they are on alert to prevent any possible clashes between the Red and Yellow members.

I expect no clash tonight but that doesn't mean the PAD and UDD won't raise their stakes in the next few days to step up their respective bargaining powers. No solution is in sight.