Thursday, November 20, 2008

Thaksin launches his 'last war'

His divorce from wife Potjaman may have raised eyebrows everywhere. And this picture of him with lovely singer Lydia has nothing to do with the ongoing conspiracy theory behind his move.

I am convinced however that the divorce is but a tactical move for Thaksin Shinnawatr to pave the way for his "last war" to make a political comeback. He recently told his close aides in Hong Kong that even if he beat a retreat, his political foes would still be determined to "kill" him.

One speculation has it that Thaksin, as part of the divorce, would spend about Bt10 billion (or around half of his share of the post-divorce wealth split) to kick off campaigns in all forms and shades with particular emphasis on mobilizing the masses in the rural areas to clamour for his return.

Thaksin is also expected to make use of the network of political affiliates such as the United Front for Democracy and the "We-Love-Thaksin" movements as well as some of the 111 former members of the banned Thai Rak Thai Party to engineer the comeback campaign.

Several politicians loyal to Thaksin have offered these scenarios as a result of Thaksin's "go-for-broke" strategy:

1. Thailand may split up along the former Soviet Union style.
2. Civil war may be inevitable if Thaksin stages his "last war" without regards for the ensuing chaos.
3. Bloodshed is unavoidable if the end justifies the means.

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