Thursday, September 23, 2010

Sanan gunning for premiership? He says "No"; Some may "Maybe"

Is Deputy PM Sanan Kachornprasart paving the way for the premiership?

His own instant answer: "No."

But some political observers seem to think otherwise.If the Democrat Party is dissolved by a ruling of the Constitutional Court, the political landscape could undergo a major shakeup.

Simple mathematics may explain the speculation about Sanan's plan. Pheau Thai Party could form the next government if backed by a number of small parties. As this chart shows, if Pheau Thai joins hands with Puea Pandin, Chat Thai Pattana,Ruam Chat Pattana, Pracharaj, Social Action and Matubhum, they could easily gain 271 seats in the House, a comfortable majority.

The Democrats and Bhumjaithai, in this scenario, could be forced to become the Opposition with a combined strength of 204 seats in the House.

But things of course aren't that simple. The behind-the-scenes fight would be fierce and if Sanan thought he could be premier in that scenario, a number of other candidates will immediately pop up. The names of M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakul, Mingkwan Saengsuwan,Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Chalerm Yoobamroong have all been tossed around for a while now.

But you never know. What sounds unlikely today may turn out to be "the only way out in a crisis." So, stay tuned!

No comments: