Monday, September 28, 2009

If Abhisit had his way...the next election should be held ....

If you put two and two together, the logical conclusion is that PM Abhisit Vejjajiva's grand plan is for a House dissolution to call a new election around the middle of next year.

How do I know? I don't think anyone knows, not even the PM himself, because there are so many variables to be taken into consideration, not the least being his own Democrat Party's relations with the largest coalition partner, Bhumjaithai Party.

And I am not sure that Abhisit's personal ties with his right-hand man, Deputy PM Suthep Thuaksuban, will ever be the same again.

Suthep admitted for the first time publicly this morning: "The Democrat Party is not ready for an election now. We still have many problems to resolve."

As if on cue, PM Abhisit told reporters at a different function at about the same time that he thought if all parties concerned were to work together, the constitutional amendments could be completed in six months -- or nine months at the latest.

At the risk of miscalculating an Abhisit-Suthep close coordination on this issue, I think we can presume that the PM believes he can survive the next six months after which an election would be inevitable, whether his party is ready or not.

And if he had his way, a referendum will be held on the proposed charter changes before the House is dissolved (the PM is the only person empowered to do that) and a new election called.

All this is based on the presumption, of course, that Abhisit is in a position to call most of the political shots from now until early next year.

And nobody can guarantee that either.

1 comment:

Steve said...

I'm still coming to terms with the fact that I agree so much with something that Khun Suthichai has written.......

Personally, I'm torn between thinking that this PM can't survive another three months and thinking/seeing that he has lined up enough excuses to spin it out for another twelve.

Either way, the smart money seems to be on Khun Newin moving up to take over - just a question of when and what it takes to cancel his banning.

Interesting to see the Suthep quote; I'll file that with his recent comment about the Democrats forgetting that they're no longer in opposition......... even after 9 months of on-the job training.