Tuesday, May 31, 2011
The man who tore up the ballot makes new predictions
Well-known political scientist Chaiyan Chaiyaporn of Chulalongkorn University, whose claim to fame was to tear up an election ballot in 2006, has predicted that Pheu Thai Party will emerge as the No 1 party after the July 3 election.
"But Pheu Thai won't get more than 250 seats," he said.
Chaiyan told Krungthep Turakij that Palang Prachachon (Pheu Thai's predecessor) won more than half of the House seats in 2007 because the Newin's faction was still part of the party.
Newin Chidchob's Bhumjaithai commands about 30-40 seats in the House and that faction makes the difference on whether Pheu Thai could win a simple majority in this election or not.
Chaiyan says the Democrat Party won't get more than half the 500 seats in the House either. "In the last election, when the Democrats were enjoying a great advantage, they couldn't manage to win a simple majority. This time, with the erosion of the support of the People's Alliance for Democracy, things are going to be tougher for the Democrats," he said.
The political scientist believes that if neither Pheau Thai nor the Democrats could win more than 250 seats in this election, chances of a Democrat-led coalition appear higher.
Thaksin Shinawatra, in his series of interviews with foreign reporters in the past week, insists that Pheu Thai will win a clear majority and will form the next government.
"If we win and are prevented from forming the next government, there will be widespread protests," Thaksin says.
Nobody knows how the election will really turn out. So, keep your fingers crossed.