Friday, June 10, 2011
Insiders' estimates: Pheu Thai: 250+; Democrats 170+
If you go off the record with some core members of the Democrat Party, they would admit that their expected performance in the July 3 election would be around 170 seats. Anything above that would be a bonus. But the strategists there say they still plan to form the next government by joining hands with the No 3,4 and 5 which they assume could win a combination of about 100 seats. That would make it possible for a Democrat-led coalition of 270 seats in the 500-member House.
But the Pheu Thai Party insists that they would win at least 270 seats alone, and during the last two weeks before election day, a strong last-minute boost could prople them up to 300 seats. That would mean that the Democrats would have no legitimate excuse not to let Pheu Thai form its own government, with or without coalition partners.
All polls suggest that Pheau Thai will emerge No 1 while the Democrats would be trailing behind by about 30-50 seats. In the end the No 3-5 parties, depending on however many seats they could jointly win, will decide who's to form the next government.